NYSE: ELAN - Elanco Animal Health

Price = Avg Price + (Avg Price * CAGR EPS% / 100)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — Nøkkelrente
Excess Key Rate — Ønsket overskridelse av styringsrenten
EPS = -2.5
CAGR EPS = 8.66%
Key Rate = 0.0433
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 13.85 + (13.85 * 8.66% / 100) = 15.05

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 0.0051
Ebitda Yield = -1.47
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 0.277
Debt = 5.77
Market Cap = 5.72
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 5.72 / (5.72 + 5.77) = 0.4977
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.4977 = 0.5023
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 3
β = -0.4411
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 3 + -0.4411 * 5.94 + 0 = 0.0038
WACC = (0.277 / 5.77) * (100% - 0.4977) * (1 - 0.21) + 0.0038 + 0.4977 = 3.77
Terminal Value = Discount (0.0051 * (1 + -1.47) / (3.77 - -1.47)) = -0.0013
Company Value = ∑ (0.0051 / (1 + 3.77) ^ 5) = 0.0712
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (-0.0013 + 0.0712) / 492300000 = 0.1419

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 0.3943
FCF Yield = 0.275
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 0.277
Debt = 5.77
Market Cap = 5.72
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 5.72 / (5.72 + 5.77) = 0.4977
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.4977 = 0.5023
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 3
β = -0.4411
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 3 + -0.4411 * 5.94 + 0 = 0.0038
WACC = (0.277 / 5.77) * (100% - 0.4977) * (1 - 0.21) + 0.0038 + 0.4977 = 3.77
Terminal Value = Discount (0.3943 * (1 + 0.275) / (3.77 - 0.275)) = 1.76
Company Value = ∑ (0.3943 / (1 + 3.77) ^ 5) = 1.13
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (1.76 + 1.13) / 492300000 = 5.87