HKEX: 9858 - China Youran Dairy Group Limited

Price = Avg Price + (Avg Price * CAGR EPS% / 100)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — Nøkkelrente
Excess Key Rate — Ønsket overskridelse av styringsrenten
EPS = -0.2509
CAGR EPS = 8.66%
Key Rate = 0.0433
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 1.81 + (1.81 * 8.66% / 100) = 1.96

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 4.85
Ebitda Yield = 0.1629
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 0.9817
Debt = 23.32
Market Cap = 5.88
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 5.88 / (5.88 + 23.32) = 0.2014
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.2014 = 0.7986
Tax = 0.25
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = -0.7
β = 2.67
Risk Premium = 18.88
Country Premium = 0.91
Cost Of Equity = -0.7 + 2.67 * 18.88 + 0.91 = 0.5063
WACC = (0.9817 / 23.32) * (100% - 0.2014) * (1 - 0.25) + 0.5063 + 0.2014 = 3.25
Terminal Value = Discount (4.85 * (1 + 0.1629) / (3.25 - 0.1629)) = 36.86
Company Value = ∑ (4.85 / (1 + 3.25) ^ 5) = 16.52
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (36.86 + 16.52) / 3795400000 = 14.06

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = -11.99
FCF Yield = 0.261
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 0.9817
Debt = 23.32
Market Cap = 5.88
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 5.88 / (5.88 + 23.32) = 0.2014
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.2014 = 0.7986
Tax = 0.25
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = -0.7
β = 2.67
Risk Premium = 18.88
Country Premium = 0.91
Cost Of Equity = -0.7 + 2.67 * 18.88 + 0.91 = 0.5063
WACC = (0.9817 / 23.32) * (100% - 0.2014) * (1 - 0.25) + 0.5063 + 0.2014 = 3.25
Terminal Value = Discount (-11.99 * (1 + 0.261) / (3.25 - 0.261)) = -56.38
Company Value = ∑ (-11.99 / (1 + 3.25) ^ 5) = -35.63
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (-56.38 + -35.63) / 3795400000 = -24.24