MOEX: ETLN - Эталон

Price = Avg Price + (Avg Price * CAGR EPS% / 100)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — Nøkkelrente
Excess Key Rate — Ønsket overskridelse av styringsrenten
EPS = -9.21
CAGR EPS = -270.96%
Key Rate = 0.21
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 0 + (0 * -270.96% / 100) = 37.49

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 15.41
Ebitda Yield = 0.0296
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 13.5
Debt = 129.69
Market Cap = 33.16
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 33.16 / (33.16 + 129.69) = 0.2036
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.2036 = 0.7964
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 8.88
β = 2.11
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 8.88 + 2.11 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.343
WACC = (13.5 / 129.69) * (100% - 0.2036) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.343 + 0.2036 = 8.38
Terminal Value = Discount (15.41 * (1 + 0.0296) / (8.38 - 0.0296)) = 195.77
Company Value = ∑ (15.41 / (1 + 8.38) ^ 5) = 57.26
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (195.77 + 57.26) / 383000000 = 660.64

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 37.66
FCF Yield = -1.95
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 13.5
Debt = 129.69
Market Cap = 33.16
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 33.16 / (33.16 + 129.69) = 0.2036
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.2036 = 0.7964
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 8.88
β = 2.11
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 8.88 + 2.11 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.343
WACC = (13.5 / 129.69) * (100% - 0.2036) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.343 + 0.2036 = 8.38
Terminal Value = Discount (37.66 * (1 + -1.95) / (8.38 - -1.95)) = -11.76
Company Value = ∑ (37.66 / (1 + 8.38) ^ 5) = 34.61
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (-11.76 + 34.61) / 383000000 = 59.68