MOEX: VSYD - Выборгский судостроительный завод

Price = Avg Price + (Avg Price * CAGR EPS% / 100)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — Nøkkelrente
Excess Key Rate — Ønsket overskridelse av styringsrenten
EPS = -658.1
CAGR EPS = 42%
Key Rate = 0.21
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 15450 + (15450 * 42% / 100) = 21939

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = -0.5185
Ebitda Yield = -0.0687
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 0.06
Debt = 11.6
Market Cap = 15.9
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 15.9 / (15.9 + 11.6) = 0.5782
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.5782 = 0.4218
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 9.51
β = 2.9
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 9.51 + 2.9 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.3962
WACC = (0.06 / 11.6) * (100% - 0.5782) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.3962 + 0.5782 = 0.6405
Terminal Value = Discount (-0.5185 * (1 + -0.0687) / (0.6405 - -0.0687)) = -6.23
Company Value = ∑ (-0.5185 / (1 + 0.6405) ^ 5) = -2.95
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (-6.23 + -2.95) / 2000000 = -4588.84

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 6.06
FCF Yield = 0.1746
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 0.06
Debt = 11.6
Market Cap = 15.9
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 15.9 / (15.9 + 11.6) = 0.5782
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.5782 = 0.4218
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 9.51
β = 2.9
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 9.51 + 2.9 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.3962
WACC = (0.06 / 11.6) * (100% - 0.5782) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.3962 + 0.5782 = 0.6405
Terminal Value = Discount (6.06 * (1 + 0.1746) / (0.6405 - 0.1746)) = 40.99
Company Value = ∑ (6.06 / (1 + 0.6405) ^ 5) = 22.06
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (40.99 + 22.06) / 2000000 = 31522.7