MOEX: YRSB - ТНС энерго Ярославль

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — Nøkkelrente
Excess Key Rate — Ønsket overskridelse av styringsrenten
EPS = 21.76
CAGR EPS = 43.85%
Key Rate = 0.21
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 21.76 * (1 + 43.85%) / (0.21 * 2) = 74.52

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 1.91
Ebitda Yield = 0.1007
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 0.082
Debt = 1.5
Market Cap = 17.22
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 17.22 / (17.22 + 1.5) = 0.9199
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.9199 = 0.0801
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 9.51
β = 0.1032
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 9.51 + 0.1032 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.2306
WACC = (0.082 / 1.5) * (100% - 0.9199) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.2306 + 0.9199 = 4.55
Terminal Value = Discount (1.91 * (1 + 0.1007) / (4.55 - 0.1007)) = 30.4
Company Value = ∑ (1.91 / (1 + 4.55) ^ 5) = 6.9
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (30.4 + 6.9) / 22000000 = 1695.61

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 2.32
FCF Yield = 0.2978
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 0.082
Debt = 1.5
Market Cap = 17.22
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 17.22 / (17.22 + 1.5) = 0.9199
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.9199 = 0.0801
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 9.51
β = 0.1032
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 9.51 + 0.1032 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.2306
WACC = (0.082 / 1.5) * (100% - 0.9199) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.2306 + 0.9199 = 4.55
Terminal Value = Discount (2.32 * (1 + 0.2978) / (4.55 - 0.2978)) = 9.55
Company Value = ∑ (2.32 / (1 + 4.55) ^ 5) = 6.31
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (9.55 + 6.31) / 22000000 = 721.09