OTC: HARL - Harleysville Financial Corporation

Price = Avg Price + (Avg Price * CAGR EPS% / 100)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — Nøkkelrente
Excess Key Rate — Ønsket overskridelse av styringsrenten
EPS = 2.44
CAGR EPS = 5.15%
Key Rate = 0.0433
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 21.64 + (21.64 * 5.15% / 100) = 22.75

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 0.03
Ebitda Yield = 0.0146
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 0.0125
Debt = 0.098
Market Cap = 0
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 0 / (0 + 0.098) = 0
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0 = 1
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 2.82
β = 0.137
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.82 + 0.137 * 5.94 + 0 = 0.0363
WACC = (0.0125 / 0.098) * (100% - 0) * (1 - 0.21) + 0.0363 + 0 = 10.05
Terminal Value = Discount (0.03 * (1 + 0.0146) / (10.05 - 0.0146)) = 0.2193
Company Value = ∑ (0.03 / (1 + 10.05) ^ 5) = 0.1101
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (0.2193 + 0.1101) / 3640000 = 90.49

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 0.0156
FCF Yield = 0.064
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 0.0125
Debt = 0.098
Market Cap = 0
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 0 / (0 + 0.098) = 0
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0 = 1
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 2.82
β = 0.137
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.82 + 0.137 * 5.94 + 0 = 0.0363
WACC = (0.0125 / 0.098) * (100% - 0) * (1 - 0.21) + 0.0363 + 0 = 10.05
Terminal Value = Discount (0.0156 * (1 + 0.064) / (10.05 - 0.064)) = 0.2822
Company Value = ∑ (0.0156 / (1 + 10.05) ^ 5) = 0.0519
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (0.2822 + 0.0519) / 3640000 = 91.78