OTC: SWGAF - The Swatch Group AG

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — Nøkkelrente
Excess Key Rate — Ønsket overskridelse av styringsrenten
EPS = 3.72
CAGR EPS = -5.79%
Key Rate = 0.0433
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 3.72 * (1 + -5.79%) / (0.0433 * 2) = 40.45

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 1.08
Ebitda Yield = 0.0711
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 0.003
Debt = 0.022
Market Cap = 14.53
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 14.53 / (14.53 + 0.022) = 0.9985
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.9985 = 0.0014999999999999
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 2.39
β = 1.32
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.39 + 1.32 * 5.94 + 0 = 0.1023
WACC = (0.003 / 0.022) * (100% - 0.9985) * (1 - 0.21) + 0.1023 + 0.9985 = 10.77
Terminal Value = Discount (1.08 * (1 + 0.0711) / (10.77 - 0.0711)) = 18.94
Company Value = ∑ (1.08 / (1 + 10.77) ^ 5) = 3.46
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (18.94 + 3.46) / 51910000 = 431.54

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 0.0044
FCF Yield = -1.46
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 0.003
Debt = 0.022
Market Cap = 14.53
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 14.53 / (14.53 + 0.022) = 0.9985
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.9985 = 0.0014999999999999
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 2.39
β = 1.32
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.39 + 1.32 * 5.94 + 0 = 0.1023
WACC = (0.003 / 0.022) * (100% - 0.9985) * (1 - 0.21) + 0.1023 + 0.9985 = 10.77
Terminal Value = Discount (0.0044 * (1 + -1.46) / (10.77 - -1.46)) = -0.000772
Company Value = ∑ (0.0044 / (1 + 10.77) ^ 5) = 0.064
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (-0.000772 + 0.064) / 51910000 = 1.22