OTC_MOEX: HMSG - ГМС Группа

Price = Avg Price + (Avg Price * CAGR EPS% / 100)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — Nøkkelrente
Excess Key Rate — Ønsket overskridelse av styringsrenten
EPS = 52.92
CAGR EPS = 9.16%
Key Rate = 0.0458
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 136.25 + (136.25 * 9.16% / 100) = 148.73

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 6.58
Ebitda Yield = 0.005
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 0
Debt = 22.67
Market Cap = 7.11
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 7.11 / (7.11 + 22.67) = 0.2388
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.2388 = 0.7612
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 2.75
β = 0
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.75 + 0 * 5.94 + 0 = 0.0275
WACC = (0 / 22.67) * (100% - 0.2388) * (1 - 0.21) + 0.0275 + 0.2388 = 0.0066
Terminal Value = Discount (6.58 * (1 + 0.005) / (0.0066 - 0.005)) = 1335.07
Company Value = ∑ (6.58 / (1 + 0.0066) ^ 5) = 32.55
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (1335.07 + 32.55) / 23000000 = 59461.66

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 0.02
FCF Yield = -1.45
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 0
Debt = 22.67
Market Cap = 7.11
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 7.11 / (7.11 + 22.67) = 0.2388
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.2388 = 0.7612
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 2.75
β = 0
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.75 + 0 * 5.94 + 0 = 0.0275
WACC = (0 / 22.67) * (100% - 0.2388) * (1 - 0.21) + 0.0275 + 0.2388 = 0.0066
Terminal Value = Discount (0.02 * (1 + -1.45) / (0.0066 - -1.45)) = -0.0062
Company Value = ∑ (0.02 / (1 + 0.0066) ^ 5) = 0.3437
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (-0.0062 + 0.3437) / 23000000 = 14.67