SSE: 600030 - CITIC Securities Company Limited

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — Nøkkelrente
Excess Key Rate — Ønsket overskridelse av styringsrenten
EPS = 1.33
CAGR EPS = 5.67%
Key Rate = 0.0433
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 1.33 * (1 + 5.67%) / (0.0433 * 2) = 16.24

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 78.08
Ebitda Yield = 0.0561
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 17.58
Debt = 457.44
Market Cap = 330.66
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 330.66 / (330.66 + 457.44) = 0.4196
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.4196 = 0.5804
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 2.89
β = -0.2115
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.89 + -0.2115 * 5.94 + 0 = 0.0163
WACC = (17.58 / 457.44) * (100% - 0.4196) * (1 - 0.21) + 0.0163 + 0.4196 = 3.03
Terminal Value = Discount (78.08 * (1 + 0.0561) / (3.03 - 0.0561)) = 2750.78
Company Value = ∑ (78.08 / (1 + 3.03) ^ 5) = 320.23
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (2750.78 + 320.23) / 14820550000 = 207.21

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 7.98
FCF Yield = -1.72
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 17.58
Debt = 457.44
Market Cap = 330.66
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 330.66 / (330.66 + 457.44) = 0.4196
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.4196 = 0.5804
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 2.89
β = -0.2115
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.89 + -0.2115 * 5.94 + 0 = 0.0163
WACC = (17.58 / 457.44) * (100% - 0.4196) * (1 - 0.21) + 0.0163 + 0.4196 = 3.03
Terminal Value = Discount (7.98 * (1 + -1.72) / (3.03 - -1.72)) = -2.82
Company Value = ∑ (7.98 / (1 + 3.03) ^ 5) = 20.21
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (-2.82 + 20.21) / 14820550000 = 1.17