SSE: 600585 - Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — Nøkkelrente
Excess Key Rate — Ønsket overskridelse av styringsrenten
EPS = 1.97
CAGR EPS = -20.86%
Key Rate = 0.0458
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 1.97 * (1 + -20.86%) / (0.0458 * 2) = 17

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 7.54
Ebitda Yield = -0.1534
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 0.9233
Debt = 22.34
Market Cap = 128.22
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 128.22 / (128.22 + 22.34) = 0.8516
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.8516 = 0.1484
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 2.6
β = 0.5297
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.6 + 0.5297 * 5.94 + 0 = 0.0575
WACC = (0.9233 / 22.34) * (100% - 0.8516) * (1 - 0.21) + 0.0575 + 0.8516 = 3.29
Terminal Value = Discount (7.54 * (1 + -0.1534) / (3.29 - -0.1534)) = 29.16
Company Value = ∑ (7.54 / (1 + 3.29) ^ 5) = 49.65
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (29.16 + 49.65) / 5299300000 = 14.87

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 1.63
FCF Yield = -0.2283
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 0.9233
Debt = 22.34
Market Cap = 128.22
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 128.22 / (128.22 + 22.34) = 0.8516
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.8516 = 0.1484
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 2.6
β = 0.5297
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.6 + 0.5297 * 5.94 + 0 = 0.0575
WACC = (0.9233 / 22.34) * (100% - 0.8516) * (1 - 0.21) + 0.0575 + 0.8516 = 3.29
Terminal Value = Discount (1.63 * (1 + -0.2283) / (3.29 - -0.2283)) = 4.08
Company Value = ∑ (1.63 / (1 + 3.29) ^ 5) = 13.46
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (4.08 + 13.46) / 5299300000 = 3.31