SSE: 600999 - China Merchants Securities Co., Ltd.

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — Nøkkelrente
Excess Key Rate — Ønsket overskridelse av styringsrenten
EPS = 1.01
CAGR EPS = 3.46%
Key Rate = 0.0458
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 1.01 * (1 + 3.46%) / (0.0458 * 2) = 11.38

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 18.66
Ebitda Yield = 0.004
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 9.52
Debt = 285.64
Market Cap = 119.59
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 119.59 / (119.59 + 285.64) = 0.2951
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.2951 = 0.7049
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 2.75
β = 1.82
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.75 + 1.82 * 5.94 + 0 = 0.1354
WACC = (9.52 / 285.64) * (100% - 0.2951) * (1 - 0.21) + 0.1354 + 0.2951 = 2.67
Terminal Value = Discount (18.66 * (1 + 0.004) / (2.67 - 0.004)) = 726.26
Company Value = ∑ (18.66 / (1 + 2.67) ^ 5) = 85.55
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (726.26 + 85.55) / 8696530000 = 93.35

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 186.4
FCF Yield = 0.3056
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 9.52
Debt = 285.64
Market Cap = 119.59
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 119.59 / (119.59 + 285.64) = 0.2951
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.2951 = 0.7049
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 2.75
β = 1.82
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.75 + 1.82 * 5.94 + 0 = 0.1354
WACC = (9.52 / 285.64) * (100% - 0.2951) * (1 - 0.21) + 0.1354 + 0.2951 = 2.67
Terminal Value = Discount (186.4 * (1 + 0.3056) / (2.67 - 0.3056)) = 764.94
Company Value = ∑ (186.4 / (1 + 2.67) ^ 5) = 534.95
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (764.94 + 534.95) / 8696530000 = 149.47