SSE: 601238 - Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd.

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — Nøkkelrente
Excess Key Rate — Ønsket overskridelse av styringsrenten
EPS = 0.4222
CAGR EPS = -7.98%
Key Rate = 0.0458
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 0.4222 * (1 + -7.98%) / (0.0458 * 2) = 4.24

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 3.84
Ebitda Yield = -0.0887
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 0.4411
Debt = 21.15
Market Cap = 89.66
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 89.66 / (89.66 + 21.15) = 0.8091
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.8091 = 0.1909
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 2.75
β = 1.11
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.75 + 1.11 * 5.94 + 0 = 0.0937
WACC = (0.4411 / 21.15) * (100% - 0.8091) * (1 - 0.21) + 0.0937 + 0.8091 = 1.71
Terminal Value = Discount (3.84 * (1 + -0.0887) / (1.71 - -0.0887)) = 30.4
Company Value = ∑ (3.84 / (1 + 1.71) ^ 5) = 22.24
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (30.4 + 22.24) / 10490230000 = 5.02

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = -2.64
FCF Yield = -0.1143
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 0.4411
Debt = 21.15
Market Cap = 89.66
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 89.66 / (89.66 + 21.15) = 0.8091
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.8091 = 0.1909
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 2.75
β = 1.11
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.75 + 1.11 * 5.94 + 0 = 0.0937
WACC = (0.4411 / 21.15) * (100% - 0.8091) * (1 - 0.21) + 0.0937 + 0.8091 = 1.71
Terminal Value = Discount (-2.64 * (1 + -0.1143) / (1.71 - -0.1143)) = -16.37
Company Value = ∑ (-2.64 / (1 + 1.71) ^ 5) = -16.32
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (-16.37 + -16.32) / 10490230000 = -3.12