MOEX: CHMK - ЧМК

Price = Avg Price + (Avg Price * CAGR EPS% / 100)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — Nøkkelrente
Excess Key Rate — Ønsket overskridelse av styringsrenten
EPS = 1322.82
CAGR EPS = 119.6%
Key Rate = 0.21
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 8052.5 + (8052.5 * 119.6% / 100) = 17683.03

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 1.44
Ebitda Yield = -1.62
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 17.69
Debt = 156.21
Market Cap = 23.26
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 23.26 / (23.26 + 156.21) = 0.1296
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.1296 = 0.8704
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 10.06
β = 1.1
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 10.06 + 1.1 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.2952
WACC = (17.69 / 156.21) * (100% - 0.1296) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.2952 + 0.1296 = 9.09
Terminal Value = Discount (1.44 * (1 + -1.62) / (9.09 - -1.62)) = -0.3368
Company Value = ∑ (1.44 / (1 + 9.09) ^ 5) = 6.07
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (-0.3368 + 6.07) / 3000000 = 1909.41

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 135.97
FCF Yield = 0.4362
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 17.69
Debt = 156.21
Market Cap = 23.26
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 23.26 / (23.26 + 156.21) = 0.1296
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.1296 = 0.8704
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 10.06
β = 1.1
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 10.06 + 1.1 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.2952
WACC = (17.69 / 156.21) * (100% - 0.1296) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.2952 + 0.1296 = 9.09
Terminal Value = Discount (135.97 * (1 + 0.4362) / (9.09 - 0.4362)) = 366.11
Company Value = ∑ (135.97 / (1 + 9.09) ^ 5) = 273.55
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (366.11 + 273.55) / 3000000 = 213220.75