MOEX: GMKN - Норникель (Норильский никель)

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — Nøkkelrente
Excess Key Rate — Ønsket overskridelse av styringsrenten
EPS = 13.91
CAGR EPS = -64.22%
Key Rate = 0.21
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 13.91 * (1 + -64.22%) / (0.21 * 2) = 11.85

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 293.41
Ebitda Yield = -0.0882
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 46.3
Debt = 912.85
Market Cap = 2032.78
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 2032.78 / (2032.78 + 912.85) = 0.6901
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.6901 = 0.3099
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 9.51
β = 0.6028
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 9.51 + 0.6028 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.2601
WACC = (46.3 / 912.85) * (100% - 0.6901) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.2601 + 0.6901 = 4.21
Terminal Value = Discount (293.41 * (1 + -0.0882) / (4.21 - -0.0882)) = 1671.01
Company Value = ∑ (293.41 / (1 + 4.21) ^ 5) = 1587.19
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (1671.01 + 1587.19) / 15286000000 = 213.15

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 146.03
FCF Yield = -0.0946
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 46.3
Debt = 912.85
Market Cap = 2032.78
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 2032.78 / (2032.78 + 912.85) = 0.6901
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.6901 = 0.3099
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 9.51
β = 0.6028
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 9.51 + 0.6028 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.2601
WACC = (46.3 / 912.85) * (100% - 0.6901) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.2601 + 0.6901 = 4.21
Terminal Value = Discount (146.03 * (1 + -0.0946) / (4.21 - -0.0946)) = 787.2
Company Value = ∑ (146.03 / (1 + 4.21) ^ 5) = 802.68
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (787.2 + 802.68) / 15286000000 = 104.01