MOEX: HYDR - Русгидро

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — Nøkkelrente
Excess Key Rate — Ønsket overskridelse av styringsrenten
EPS = 0.0763
CAGR EPS = 5.51%
Key Rate = 0.21
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 0.0763 * (1 + 5.51%) / (0.21 * 2) = 0.1918

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 178.63
Ebitda Yield = 0.0345
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 15.45
Debt = 356.51
Market Cap = 297.03
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 297.03 / (297.03 + 356.51) = 0.4545
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.4545 = 0.5455
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 10.06
β = 0.1086
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 10.06 + 0.1086 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.2364
WACC = (15.45 / 356.51) * (100% - 0.4545) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.2364 + 0.4545 = 3.56
Terminal Value = Discount (178.63 * (1 + 0.0345) / (3.56 - 0.0345)) = 137491.91
Company Value = ∑ (178.63 / (1 + 3.56) ^ 5) = 751.54
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (137491.91 + 751.54) / 444793000000 = 310.8

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 57.19
FCF Yield = -1.83
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 15.45
Debt = 356.51
Market Cap = 297.03
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 297.03 / (297.03 + 356.51) = 0.4545
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.4545 = 0.5455
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 10.06
β = 0.1086
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 10.06 + 0.1086 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.2364
WACC = (15.45 / 356.51) * (100% - 0.4545) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.2364 + 0.4545 = 3.56
Terminal Value = Discount (57.19 * (1 + -1.83) / (3.56 - -1.83)) = -21.38
Company Value = ∑ (57.19 / (1 + 3.56) ^ 5) = 85.51
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (-21.38 + 85.51) / 444793000000 = 0.1442