MOEX: INGR - Инград

Price = Avg Price + (Avg Price * CAGR EPS% / 100)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — Nøkkelrente
Excess Key Rate — Ønsket overskridelse av styringsrenten
EPS = 50
CAGR EPS = 42%
Key Rate = 0.21
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 1810 + (1810 * 42% / 100) = 2570.2

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 45.04
Ebitda Yield = 0.3509
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 5.17
Debt = 132.8
Market Cap = 71.8
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 71.8 / (71.8 + 132.8) = 0.3509
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.3509 = 0.6491
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 8.88
β = 0.7461
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 8.88 + 0.7461 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.2623
WACC = (5.17 / 132.8) * (100% - 0.3509) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.2623 + 0.3509 = 3.2
Terminal Value = Discount (45.04 * (1 + 0.3509) / (3.2 - 0.3509)) = 163
Company Value = ∑ (45.04 / (1 + 3.2) ^ 5) = 120.6
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (163 + 120.6) / 41000000 = 6916.98

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 904.84
FCF Yield = -3.01
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 5.17
Debt = 132.8
Market Cap = 71.8
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 71.8 / (71.8 + 132.8) = 0.3509
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.3509 = 0.6491
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 8.88
β = 0.7461
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 8.88 + 0.7461 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.2623
WACC = (5.17 / 132.8) * (100% - 0.3509) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.2623 + 0.3509 = 3.2
Terminal Value = Discount (904.84 * (1 + -3.01) / (3.2 - -3.01)) = -510.55
Company Value = ∑ (904.84 / (1 + 3.2) ^ 5) = 528.93
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (-510.55 + 528.93) / 41000000 = 448.33