MOEX: KTSB - Костромская сбытовая компания

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — Nøkkelrente
Excess Key Rate — Ønsket overskridelse av styringsrenten
EPS = 0.059
CAGR EPS = 12.32%
Key Rate = 0.21
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 0.059 * (1 + 12.32%) / (0.21 * 2) = 0.1578

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 0.0126
Ebitda Yield = -1.62
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 0.0188
Debt = 0.1157
Market Cap = 0
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 0 / (0 + 0.1157) = 0
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0 = 1
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 8.53
β = 4.53
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 8.53 + 4.53 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.4822
WACC = (0.0188 / 0.1157) * (100% - 0) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.4822 + 0 = 13.01
Terminal Value = Discount (0.0126 * (1 + -1.62) / (13.01 - -1.62)) = -0.0024
Company Value = ∑ (0.0126 / (1 + 13.01) ^ 5) = 0.0524
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (-0.0024 + 0.0524) / 1005000000 = 0.0497

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 1.47
FCF Yield = 0.2299
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 0.0188
Debt = 0.1157
Market Cap = 0
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 0 / (0 + 0.1157) = 0
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0 = 1
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 8.53
β = 4.53
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 8.53 + 4.53 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.4822
WACC = (0.0188 / 0.1157) * (100% - 0) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.4822 + 0 = 13.01
Terminal Value = Discount (1.47 * (1 + 0.2299) / (13.01 - 0.2299)) = 9.83
Company Value = ∑ (1.47 / (1 + 13.01) ^ 5) = 3.39
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (9.83 + 3.39) / 1005000000 = 13.16