NASDAQ: ORLY - O'Reilly Automotive

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — Nøkkelrente
Excess Key Rate — Ønsket overskridelse av styringsrenten
EPS = 38.47
CAGR EPS = 16.56%
Key Rate = 0.0433
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 38.47 * (1 + 16.56%) / (0.0433 * 2) = 517.79

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 4.29
Ebitda Yield = 0.0615
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 0.2017
Debt = 5.96
Market Cap = 56.52
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 56.52 / (56.52 + 5.96) = 0.9046
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.9046 = 0.0954
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 2.89
β = 1.43
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.89 + 1.43 * 5.94 + 0 = 0.1139
WACC = (0.2017 / 5.96) * (100% - 0.9046) * (1 - 0.21) + 0.1139 + 0.9046 = 2.75
Terminal Value = Discount (4.29 * (1 + 0.0615) / (2.75 - 0.0615)) = 117.07
Company Value = ∑ (4.29 / (1 + 2.75) ^ 5) = 17.58
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (117.07 + 17.58) / 61000000 = 2207.51

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 3.38
FCF Yield = 0.1074
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 0.2017
Debt = 5.96
Market Cap = 56.52
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 56.52 / (56.52 + 5.96) = 0.9046
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.9046 = 0.0954
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 2.89
β = 1.43
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.89 + 1.43 * 5.94 + 0 = 0.1139
WACC = (0.2017 / 5.96) * (100% - 0.9046) * (1 - 0.21) + 0.1139 + 0.9046 = 2.75
Terminal Value = Discount (3.38 * (1 + 0.1074) / (2.75 - 0.1074)) = 40.87
Company Value = ∑ (3.38 / (1 + 2.75) ^ 5) = 12.76
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (40.87 + 12.76) / 61000000 = 879.23