NYSE: CMG - Chipotle Mexican Grill

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — Nøkkelrente
Excess Key Rate — Ønsket overskridelse av styringsrenten
EPS = 0.8869
CAGR EPS = -40.98%
Key Rate = 0.0433
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 0.8869 * (1 + -40.98%) / (0.0433 * 2) = 6.04

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 3.73
Ebitda Yield = 0.1398
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 0.0211
Debt = 4.05
Market Cap = 51.02
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 51.02 / (51.02 + 4.05) = 0.9264
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.9264 = 0.0736
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 2.82
β = 1.46
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.82 + 1.46 * 5.94 + 0 = 0.1148
WACC = (0.0211 / 4.05) * (100% - 0.9264) * (1 - 0.21) + 0.1148 + 0.9264 = 0.514
Terminal Value = Discount (3.73 * (1 + 0.1398) / (0.514 - 0.1398)) = 30.79
Company Value = ∑ (3.73 / (1 + 0.514) ^ 5) = 14.37
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (30.79 + 14.37) / 27710000 = 1629.56

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 3.13
FCF Yield = 0.2066
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 0.0211
Debt = 4.05
Market Cap = 51.02
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 51.02 / (51.02 + 4.05) = 0.9264
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.9264 = 0.0736
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 2.82
β = 1.46
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.82 + 1.46 * 5.94 + 0 = 0.1148
WACC = (0.0211 / 4.05) * (100% - 0.9264) * (1 - 0.21) + 0.1148 + 0.9264 = 0.514
Terminal Value = Discount (3.13 * (1 + 0.2066) / (0.514 - 0.2066)) = 18.26
Company Value = ∑ (3.13 / (1 + 0.514) ^ 5) = 10.93
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (18.26 + 10.93) / 27710000 = 1053.33