OTC: EGRNF - China Evergrande Group

Price = Avg Price + (Avg Price * CAGR EPS% / 100)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — Nøkkelrente
Excess Key Rate — Ønsket overskridelse av styringsrenten
EPS = -5.04
CAGR EPS = 8.66%
Key Rate = 0.0433
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 0.0156 + (0.0156 * 8.66% / 100) = 0.0169

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 2.3
Ebitda Yield = -1.5
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 0
Debt = 699.44
Market Cap = 2.78
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 2.78 / (2.78 + 699.44) = 0.004
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.004 = 0.996
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 3
β = 350.13
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 3 + 350.13 * 5.94 + 0 = 20.83
WACC = (0 / 699.44) * (100% - 0.004) * (1 - 0.21) + 20.83 + 0.004 = 0.0825
Terminal Value = Discount (2.3 * (1 + -1.5) / (0.0825 - -1.5)) = -0.7681
Company Value = ∑ (2.3 / (1 + 0.0825) ^ 5) = 24.52
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (-0.7681 + 24.52) / 13252000000 = 1.79

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 0.7938
FCF Yield = -1.51
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 0
Debt = 699.44
Market Cap = 2.78
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 2.78 / (2.78 + 699.44) = 0.004
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.004 = 0.996
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 3
β = 350.13
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 3 + 350.13 * 5.94 + 0 = 20.83
WACC = (0 / 699.44) * (100% - 0.004) * (1 - 0.21) + 20.83 + 0.004 = 0.0825
Terminal Value = Discount (0.7938 * (1 + -1.51) / (0.0825 - -1.51)) = -0.2656
Company Value = ∑ (0.7938 / (1 + 0.0825) ^ 5) = 8.27
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (-0.2656 + 8.27) / 13252000000 = 0.6043