OTC: ZFSVF - Zurich Insurance Group AG

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — Nøkkelrente
Excess Key Rate — Ønsket overskridelse av styringsrenten
EPS = 40.86
CAGR EPS = 9.62%
Key Rate = 0.0433
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 40.86 * (1 + 9.62%) / (0.0433 * 2) = 517.21

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 97.17
Ebitda Yield = 0.0456
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 0.44
Debt = 12.89
Market Cap = 70.01
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 70.01 / (70.01 + 12.89) = 0.8445
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.8445 = 0.1555
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 2.39
β = -1.07
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.39 + -1.07 * 5.94 + 0 = -0.0395
WACC = (0.44 / 12.89) * (100% - 0.8445) * (1 - 0.21) + -0.0395 + 0.8445 = 2.64
Terminal Value = Discount (97.17 * (1 + 0.0456) / (2.64 - 0.0456)) = 4641.93
Company Value = ∑ (97.17 / (1 + 2.64) ^ 5) = 411.12
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (4641.93 + 411.12) / 142290000 = 35512.34

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 9.51
FCF Yield = 0.0562
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 0.44
Debt = 12.89
Market Cap = 70.01
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 70.01 / (70.01 + 12.89) = 0.8445
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.8445 = 0.1555
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 2.39
β = -1.07
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.39 + -1.07 * 5.94 + 0 = -0.0395
WACC = (0.44 / 12.89) * (100% - 0.8445) * (1 - 0.21) + -0.0395 + 0.8445 = 2.64
Terminal Value = Discount (9.51 * (1 + 0.0562) / (2.64 - 0.0562)) = 295.55
Company Value = ∑ (9.51 / (1 + 2.64) ^ 5) = 39.44
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (295.55 + 39.44) / 142290000 = 2354.3