SSE: 601088 - China Shenhua Energy Company Limited

Price = EPS * (1 + CAGR EPS) / (Key Rate * Excess Key Rate)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — Nøkkelrente
Excess Key Rate — Ønsket overskridelse av styringsrenten
EPS = 3
CAGR EPS = 6.63%
Key Rate = 0.0458
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 3 * (1 + 6.63%) / (0.0458 * 2) = 34.97

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 103.28
Ebitda Yield = 0.013
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 0.274
Debt = 54.32
Market Cap = 519.67
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 519.67 / (519.67 + 54.32) = 0.9054
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.9054 = 0.0946
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 2.6
β = 0.1403
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.6 + 0.1403 * 5.94 + 0 = 0.0343
WACC = (0.274 / 54.32) * (100% - 0.9054) * (1 - 0.21) + 0.0343 + 0.9054 = 0.426
Terminal Value = Discount (103.28 * (1 + 0.013) / (0.426 - 0.013)) = 11742.65
Company Value = ∑ (103.28 / (1 + 0.426) ^ 5) = 496.91
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (11742.65 + 496.91) / 19868520000 = 616.03

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 60.6
FCF Yield = 0.0287
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 0.274
Debt = 54.32
Market Cap = 519.67
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 519.67 / (519.67 + 54.32) = 0.9054
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0.9054 = 0.0946
Tax = 0.21
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 2.6
β = 0.1403
Risk Premium = 5.94
Country Premium = 0
Cost Of Equity = 2.6 + 0.1403 * 5.94 + 0 = 0.0343
WACC = (0.274 / 54.32) * (100% - 0.9054) * (1 - 0.21) + 0.0343 + 0.9054 = 0.426
Terminal Value = Discount (60.6 * (1 + 0.0287) / (0.426 - 0.0287)) = 2494.77
Company Value = ∑ (60.6 / (1 + 0.426) ^ 5) = 282.87
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (2494.77 + 282.87) / 19868520000 = 139.8