MOEX: X5 - X5 Retail Group

Price = Avg Price + (Avg Price * CAGR EPS% / 100)
EPS = Earning Per Share
CAGR EPS = CAGR 5 EPS
Key Rate — Nøkkelrente
Excess Key Rate — Ønsket overskridelse av styringsrenten
EPS = 288.27
CAGR EPS = 42%
Key Rate = 0.21
Excess Key Rate = 2
Price = 2893.75 + (2893.75 * 42% / 100) = 4109.13

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount Ebitda(5) * (1 + Ebitda Yield) / (WACC - Ebitda Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount Ebitda / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount Ebitda(5) = 516.32
Ebitda Yield = 0.0825
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 80.41
Debt = 899.19
Market Cap = 0
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 0 / (0 + 899.19) = 0
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0 = 1
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 9.92
β = 1.01
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 9.92 + 1.01 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.2882
WACC = (80.41 / 899.19) * (100% - 0) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.2882 + 0 = 7.15
Terminal Value = Discount (516.32 * (1 + 0.0825) / (7.15 - 0.0825)) = 36065.23
Company Value = ∑ (516.32 / (1 + 7.15) ^ 5) = 1790.8
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (36065.23 + 1790.8) / 272000000 = 139176.59

Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares
Price - Fair pris
Terminal Value — kostnad i perioden etter prognose
Company Value — kostnad i prognoseperioden
Count shares - Antall aksjer
Terminal Value = Discount FCF(5) * (1 + FCF Yield) / (WACC - FCF Yield)
Company Value = ∑ (Discount FCF / (1 + WACC) ^ 5)
Discount FCF(5) = 339.28
FCF Yield = 0.1738
WACC = (Interest Expense / Debt) * (Weight Cost Debt) * (1 - Tax) + Cost Of Equity * Weight Debt
Interest Expense - Gjeldsbetjeningskostnader
Debt - Plikt
Weight Debt - Kapitaliseringsvekt i forhold til gjeld
Weight Cost Debt - Gjeldsvekt i forhold til kapitalisering
Tax - Avgift
Interest Expense = 80.41
Debt = 899.19
Market Cap = 0
Weight Debt = Market Cap / (Market Cap + Debt) = 0 / (0 + 899.19) = 0
Weight Cost Debt = 100% - 0 = 1
Tax = 0.2
Cost Of Equity — diskonteringsrente
Cost Of Equity = k(f) + β * Risk Premium + Country Premium (Damodaran table)
k(f) — risikofri avkastning
β (beta) — bestemmer risikomålet for en aksje (aktiva) i forhold til markedet og viser sensitiviteten til endringer i aksjens lønnsomhet i forhold til endringer i markedslønnsomheten.
Risk Premium — risikopremie - premie for risikoen ved å investere i aksjer
Country Premium - landrisiko
k(f) = 9.92
β = 1.01
Risk Premium = 5.91
Country Premium = 12.94
Cost Of Equity = 9.92 + 1.01 * 5.91 + 12.94 = 0.2882
WACC = (80.41 / 899.19) * (100% - 0) * (1 - 0.2) + 0.2882 + 0 = 7.15
Terminal Value = Discount (339.28 * (1 + 0.1738) / (7.15 - 0.1738)) = 2755.64
Company Value = ∑ (339.28 / (1 + 7.15) ^ 5) = 1008.99
Price = (Terminal Value + Company Value) / Count shares = (2755.64 + 1008.99) / 272000000 = 13840.57